We are officially knee-deep into draft season. In a few weeks, you’ll be sick of mock drafts, projections and hot takes surrounding this draft class.
The Houston Rockets are in an interesting spot, coming off of a successful 2023-24 regular season and armed with the No. 3 pick. There are several directions the team could go between now and June 26. I spent the past week in Chicago trying to figure it out through conversations with league executives, scouts and agents. Here is version 1.0 of our draft notebook.
• Because of the intrigue of the current draft-eligible players — its overall parity and lack of a true No. 1 prospect — this year’s draft preparation might prove to be difficult.
“I think this year, there’s going to be quite a few guys coming from backgrounds that are a little bit different,” Rockets general manager Rafael Stone told reporters last week. “And it makes the evaluation process a little harder, but it doesn’t mean they’re less talented.”
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Sorting through this class will require a holistic approach in more ways than scouting, for example, Amen Thompson or Jabari Smith Jr.
Houston’s brass has yet to meet formally to construct its initial big board. May 29 is the deadline for players to withdraw from the draft to maintain their college eligibility and Eurocamp begins June 1 in Treviso, Italy, which tends to delay in-person gatherings as things become solidified. Head coach Ime Udoka will attend pro days this week in Los Angeles, getting a closer look at potential green room invites. Before the lottery, Stone had been looking at Zaccharie Risacher, Tidjane Salaun and others in Europe.
Rockets officials also met with some of the players projected to go at the top of next month’s draft — including UConn’s Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle, Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard and G League Ignite’s Matas Buzelis — during the combine. One team source cited Buzelis’ interview as excellent, which correlated with his group availability, showing confidence in his NBA readiness, commitment to defensive discipline and the simplifying of his offensive game to translate to the pros.
• The casual nature of the combine — conversations with league executives, agents, media and scouts held either in the lobby and restaurant area of the Marriott Marquis or on the concourse of the adjacent Wintrust Arena — gave an early peek into outside interest in the Rockets’ No. 3 pick. Talks have largely been informal, the bulk of concrete offers likely won’t come in until draft night, but a handful of teams have expressed interest in acquiring the pick, team and league sources told The Athletic. Interested teams would either like to move up to No. 3 or ones that would like to move into the first round altogether, sources said.
• There is an assumption, given Houston’s 19-win improvement and Udoka’s preference for older, experienced players, that the Rockets would prefer to trade the pick. That isn’t necessarily the case.
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“I don’t think there’s only one way to develop young players and I don’t think there’s only one way to build a roster,” Stone told reporters last week. “We definitely would draft someone and bring him into the fold if it makes sense.”
The Rockets have options.
“Because we like our current roster so much, it provides us with more flexibility to explore creative deals of all sorts,” Stone told The Athletic last week. Since the rebuild started, six first-round picks have been added to the roster and, to varying degrees, all six have contributed to Houston’s improvement. It’s not outlandish to think the right player, even in a draft class considered weak, could add to the mix.
Team sources said Houston will listen to offers. For example, moving back and collecting additional assets should not be ruled out as a possibility, not this early in the process. Since 29 other teams may have 29 opinions on the top of the draft, big boards could vary. Last season, the Rockets expected Cam Whitmore (who had been highly graded) to be gone by the time their 20th pick came around. They were prepared to trade out of the draft entirely — and were surprised he was still on the board when the pick arrived. A similar situation could arise next month, with a player they like at No. 3 potentially available at say, No. 9.
• Another possibility, if the Rockets were to move the No. 3 pick, is packaging it with additional assets for a star. Houston is flush with young talent and draft capital that could appeal to teams with elite talent in flux. One player who fits is Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell. The Rockets are among those interested in the 27-year-old and have been monitoring his situation for months, league sources say. The Cavaliers guard’s delay in inking a long-term extension, coupled with another disheartening playoff exit, only adds to speculation about his future. Such a move for an All-NBA type player would be more suitable than for others who could potentially be available — New Orleans’ Brandon Ingram and Brooklyn’s Mikal Bridges — for example.
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• Houston also could look to acquire future draft picks, such as Brooklyn’s array of assets courtesy of the Phoenix Suns/Kevin Durant trade. The Houston Chronicle first reported the Rockets’ interest in the Suns’ unprotected first-round picks (Brooklyn has ownership of 2025, ’27 and ’29 Phoenix firsts in addition to swaps beginning in 2028). Per team sources, the Rockets will re-engage with the Nets leading up to the June 26 draft.
• All signs point toward the Rockets picking up the options on veteran forwards Jae’Sean Tate and Jeff Green, team sources said. This list also includes reserve center Jock Landale, even with the expectation Steven Adams, who was acquired in February, will be a sizable contributor next season. From a cap space standpoint, this would put the Rockets around $9.5 million under the tax threshold, according to The Athletic’s salary cap expert Danny Leroux. Houston would still be able to access the full non-taxpayer midlevel exception, which has a projected starting salary of $12.9 million and a max value of $55.3 million for four years.
Leftover musings
• Based on Houston’s recent draft profile (although Stone recently said he doesn’t have a player type) — leaning more toward size and versatility and away from team fit — my personal Rockets big board likely differs from the field. Mock drafts are a tough exercise because the level of influence from the general manager, head coach and owner is different in each team.
Although Stone makes the decision on draft night for the Rockets, Udoka’s voice is clear. Here’s how I would rank the upcoming prospects from a Rockets point of view:
Zaccharie Risacher | 6-8 wing/forward | 19 years old | JL Bourg
Matas Buzelis | 6-9 wing/forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Stephon Castle| 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Connecticut
Dalton Knecht | 6-5 wing | 23 years old | Tennessee
Ron Holland | 6-7 wing | 18 years old | G League Ignite
In my next tier, I would have Alex Sarr, Sheppard, Nikola Topić, Rob Dillingham and Clingan. Again, this is just how I see it right now. It can change. But if I’m looking for the sweet spot between talent, versatility and fit, this is where I’m at.
• Houston has identified floor spacing and shooting as an area of need this offseason privately and publicly and have an interest in veteran sharpshooter Malik Beasley, league sources said. Beasley, who is also attracting early interest from Orlando and Golden State, spent the past season in Milwaukee, starting 77 games and shooting 41.3 percent from 3-point distance.
• On the subject of the Magic, there is a clear need for an overhaul in the shooting department, and Orlando could benefit from adding guards with playmaking and floor-spacing capabilities. “… And having a guy who can set the table and be reliable,” Magic star Paolo Banchero told The Washington Post recently. “We have a lot of talented guys who can make shots and make plays: me, Franz (Wagner) and Jalen Suggs. I would rather be more of an offensive hub than the point guard if that makes sense.”
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Orlando is interested in Lakers guard D’Angelo Russell, league sources tellThe Athletic. Russell has an $18.7 million player option for the 2024-25 season he can opt out of if he chooses to test the open market.
• The Spurs are said to be big fans of UConn’s Castle, league sources said, and he is moving up their draft board. San Antonio has two top-10 selections and could take Castle with either the No. 4 or No. 8 pick.
• After sitting through all four combine scrimmages and a long week in Chicago, AJ Johnson’s stock is on the rise. The 6-foot-6 Illawarra point guard tested well — sixth among all participants in both the shuttle run and pro lane drill, two important factors in lateral quickness and more importantly, defensive potential and ability. But on the floor, his presence is clear. I’m not sure how often a player is asked to switch teams mid-drill, but the white team was getting outplayed so badly in four-on-four that Johnson was asked to switch to balance things out.
Once the games started, he was one of the best players on the floor over both days, less so because of his counting stats (17 points on 7 of 14 shots, 10 assists, one turnover) and more because of his intangibles. Johnson has a great feel for the game, understanding how to create half-court opportunities for his teammates, so much so that opposing coaches were screaming for traps and doubles once he touched the ball.
He still needs to add pounds to his frame and show defensive consistency, as well as his overall aggression, but there’s a real maturity with the ball in his hands that is rare for young players, especially having been glued to the bench for the majority of his only NBL season. Teams came away impressed with his impact and how he interviewed, and the buzz of Johnson jumping into the first round is legit.
(Photo: Thomas Shea / USA Today)
Kelly Iko is a staff writer covering the Houston Rockets and the NBA for The Athletic. The upcoming 2023-24 season will be his eighth following the NBA, having previously worked with USA Today and ESPN Houston. Follow Kelly on Twitter @KellyIko
